Industry consultant Arcadis has forecast a potential 'hard Brexit' stance could result in the number of EU construction workers entering the UK "fall at the rate of attrition".
This would result in EU nationals leaving the industry and not being replaced at the same rate by new EU workers. In this scenario, it is estimated 214,000 fewer people from the EU would enter the infrastructure and house building sectors "between now and 2020".
In addition, even a 'soft Brexit' scenario would see numbers of EU workers reduced. One possible scenario is introducing rigid quotas or policies on a sector-by-sector basis, allowing for a degree of EU migration into the sector. However, this would still result in around 135,000 fewer European nationals relocating to British construction.
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With the date set to trigger Article 50 in the first quarter of next year, James Bryce, Director of Workforce Planning, said what started as a skills gap "could soon become a skills gulf".
"The British construction sector has been built on overseas labour for generations, and restrictions of any sort – be it hard or soft Brexit – will hit the industry," he said.
"Missing out on over 200,000 people entering the workforce could mean rising costs for business, and much needed homes and transport networks being delayed. In recent decades, there has been a massive push towards tertiary education which has seen a big drop in the number of British people with the specific skills we need. If we cannot import the right people, we will need to quickly ramp up training and change the way we build.
"Be it hard or soft Brexit, we need to take back control of the construction industry. The likes of robotics and off-site manufacturing have never been taken as seriously as they should, but they could well prove the difference. So, too, could training. Working with schools and colleges is one way of taking control but this takes time. In the short term retraining and turning to the unemployed and underemployed could be a significant benefit to an industry under significant pressure."
(LM/CD)
